Let's start off with the numbers. In almost every poll conducted between August 5th and October 23rd, Marshall has held between a 2% and 4% lead over Bollier (but Bollier does still claim a few 2% leads herself). The margin of error on most of these polls is between 3 - 5%, meaning the polls are too close to determine a clear winner.

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However, where Marshall begins to hold the lead is in support from influential figures. Marshall is endorsed by twenty-three-year Kansas senator Pat Roberts (who had a relatively high approval rating throughout most of his career, with the exception of his last term, when he was ranked the fourth least popular senator), and is supported by President Trump, who holds a twelve point lead in Kansas over Joe Biden.

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And beyond the support of these figures, Marshall has the advantage of being a Republican in a ruby-red state that has had only Republican senators since 1932! It would take something incredibly impressive from Bollier or incredibly unreasonable from Marshall for Kansans to vote for a party their parents and grandparents never once supported in their lifetime.

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Finally, even ignoring party loyalty, Marshall, as a Republican, still appeals to the majority of Kansans who are still conservative and farmers. While Bollier may work on more liberal beliefs such as putting the environment over the economy (including regulations on farmers), Marshall continues to focus on using his power to help his citizens first. Marshall would be less willing to tax his farmers to feed undocumented immigrants from Mexico and more willing to instead grant more subsidies and generally intervene less in the market.

 

We believe that party loyalty and influential figures will help Marshall win the election, but also that Marshall's plans to put Kansans first provides an explanation for why he is a better candidate for the people of Kansas and thereby should win the election.